Fantasy Hockey Feature: Simon Edvinsson
Simon Edvinsson's potential was hailed to be as large as he is. And while the Swedish defefender has taken a bit longer to break through than many would have hoped, he's beginning to display the massive upside that was promised during his draft-eligible season. But just how high can this man fly? Let's dig in.
Edvinsson was taken sixth overall in 2021. The EP Rinkside team had him ranked number eight. The team saw a ton of potential in his big frame, excellent skating, and physicality. On the other hand, they had concerns with his decision-making, which is why they didn’t rank him higher. Perhaps Edvinsson was just trying too many low-percentage plays in his draft season rather than just making poor decisions. That certainly depends on your perspective and hindsight.
In either case, one thing that was clear in his draft season was that Edvinsson was already handling professional hockey quite well. In his 14 HockeyAllsvenskan games with Västerås IK, he had five assists. Looking at his tracking data from Lassi Alanen, you can see that he was dominant in offence and transition. He was pretty excellent defencively as well, especially for a teenager. He also played 10 SHL games with Frölunda HC and garnered one assist.
Edvinsson’s draft plus one season was spent entirely in the SHL where he put up nearly a half point-per-game with 19 points in 44 games. He then came to North America in 2022-23 and was given a nine game tryout with the Red Wings. The rest of the season he was with the Grand Rapid Griffins of the AHL where he posted over a point-per-game. At this point, the fans were starting to get impatient with general manager Steve Yzerman as they wanted to see their young stud in the NHL.
2023-24 saw Edvinsson only play 16 games in the NHL despite being one of their best blue liners. According to Evolving Hockey, Edvinsson was only behind Olli Maatta in terms of expected goal differential per 60 minutes. for all their defenders. That season, the Red Wings missed the playoffs in a tie-breaker to the Washington Capitals. You have to imagine if their second-best defender had been in the lineup more often, they could have gotten at least one more point.
Looking at the Hockey Prospecting model, Edvinsson grew his star potential after his draft season from eight to 13%. It stayed at this level until he graduated in the model after his second AHL season. His NHLer probability remained at 66% after his draft plus one season and it seems that he is a no-doubt NHLer at this point.
Looking at this pNHLe in NHL Rank King application, Edvinsson’s potential peaked in his SHL days where it was in the mid-60’s. Since his AHL time, he has looked more like a mid-40’s to 50 point defender. So far this season, Edvinsson has been registering at least a hit and two blocks per game. If you pair his point potential with a solid peripheral floor, he could be a valuable fantasy asset.
To gain more insight into Edvinsson, I reached out to my colleagues who know him well.
Tony Wolak of The Hockey Writers
“You can expect to see Simon Edvinsson in Detroit’s top four for the next 10 years – the kid has arrived. He has fit right in with Moritz Seider on Detroit’s top pair, playing impact minutes every night.
While Edvinsson will have a prominent role on the penalty kill, don’t expect him to see much time with the man advantage. Seider and Erik Gustafsson have been quarterbacking the Red Wings’ two power play units, and Ben Chiarot has subbed in when the latter is out of the lineup. Edvinsson has offencive upside and could see some power play time in the future, but not a ton. Seider will always have a role there, and the Red Wings have offensive dynamo Axel Sandin-Pellikka on the way, too.
Given his prominent role and abundance of ice time, Edvinsson is a solid add in deep leagues, especially ones with hits and blocked shots as categories. He won’t produce a ton of points – 40ish could be his career-high – but his cumulative fantasy stats could make Edvinsson a nice depth player for good teams. I made sure to add him to my squad.”
Devin Little of The Hockey Writers
“It probably shouldn't be surprising that Simon Edvinsson has already ascended the Red Wings' depth chart on the blue line. The tools have always been there: imposing size, long reach, good hockey sense, and even his compete level has become more and more noticeable over the last year or so. Alas, here we are and Edvinsson finds himself on Detroit's top pairing alongside Moritz Seider.
He should probably get comfortable.
The Red Wings were very methodical with Edvinsson's development (some will tell you he should have been a regular player on last season's team) and it seems to be paying dividends this season. Together with Seider, Edvinsson is suppressing chances at a good rate. He's blocking shots, breaking up plays, and flashing the offensive upside that made him such a high pick in the 2021 draft.
It is not too bold to suggest Edvinsson is a lock as a top four defender in Detroit for the foreseeable future. Depending on how the next few months go, you might even be able to say he's a bona fide top line defender. To take the next step, he needs to elevate his offensive game and claim a regular role on power play - and I believe that opportunity will present itself. But comparing where he is today to where he was three years ago is night and day; his raw talent is undeniable, and he seems to have figured out how to tap into it on a consistent basis.
There are a lot of things to be concerned about in Red Wings Land right now, but Edvinsson is not one of them.”
In all likelihood, this is just the beginning of a long tenure of production from Edvinsson. If anyone in your league has become impatient with their share, you might be able to pry him away. Buyer beware though, he might not hit the high point totals he once promised with Seider in town and Sandin-Pellikka on the way. His value goes up in leagues that count play-driving or time on ice, any stat that correlates to being actually good in real life. In points-only set ups, he won’t be as valuable.
