Sweden Stock Watch: Felix Nilsson enjoying a breakout season

The hockey season in Sweden is halfway through and at senior level the leagues are extremely tight in the standings with every point being valuable. As always, some prospects struggle to earn ice time under that context, while others are getting opportunities and excelling. 

It is also clear that we shouldn’t be too quick to assess these talents either in their first or second year after they have been drafted. 

In this month's article, I highlight players who didn’t quite expectations in their draft-plus-one season, but surpassed them in their draft-plus-two season. We have also seen another goalie rise from “nowhere” to play the pro game in record-breaking fashion.

Stock Rising 📈

Felix Nilsson, C, Rögle BK (Nashville Predators)

After not taking any clear development strides in his draft-plus-one season, Felix Nilsson has surprised many doubters this fall, including his own team. Rögle initially loaned him out for the full season to Oskarshamn in HockeyAllsvenskan, but recalled for a few games due to injuries. He then played so well that Rögle decided to keep him, despite the fact that they had to pay compensation to Oskarshamn for breaking the loan agreement. 

It’s especially Nilsson’s offensive game that has improved this season. He’s a full-time centre and gets power play time. Felix has grown well into his body, now better able to protect the puck and move the puck with good reach. He doesn't need much space to create scoring chances and opens up space, too. He continues to play an intense game and gives good puck support. He sees the ice well and has shown a strong passing and playmaking game. Because of his movement, he creates offence from various positions and in different ways. 

Now, Nilsson looks like an exciting second-round pick with third-line potential from combination of solid defensive and offensive abilities. He’s a great example of a player that has needed time and patience to develop.

Olof Glifford, G, HV71 (Florida Panthers)

Out of seemingly nowhere, Olof Glifford has turned heads lately by stepping into the SHL and winning four straight starts, becoming the first junior goaltender in SHL history to do so. To put this sensation in another context, Glifford wasn’t even named as one of three goalies for Sweden’s WJC roster last week. This might have been a mistake if we look at what he’s done the last two weeks. 

HV71 is at the bottom of the standings, with a high risk of facing relegation games at the end of the season. In Glifford’s first game, HV71 faced the other bottom-placed team on the road in a must-win game. Glifford made 21 saves, backstopping HV71 to the victory. Then, he won three additional games, now posting a .960 save percentage. 

Glifford is a calm and positionally strong goalie. He is 6-foot-5 and covers a lot of the net with just good positioning from all angles. He reads the game well and shows quick feet and a reliable glove hand. This is a short span of games in which he has looked sensational. If he keeps it up, he will no longer be just a depth prospect in Florida's system and might be the injection HV71 needed to save themselves from relegation.

David Edstrom, C, Frölunda HC (Nashville Predators)

David Edstrom is an underrated prospect in the sense that he is rarely talked about or highly ranked. Being traded away from two organizations (Vegas and San Jose) hasn’t helped either. His size and athletic abilities with good reach and elasticity have made his transition to senior hockey smooth. 

Though an average skater technically, Edstrom moves his feet quickly and takes smart routes. He is a defensively reliable centre at SHL level and can be used in all forms of play. He also adds some small-area skill and inside-drive to his game. He will probably be the top centre at the WJC for Sweden with pressure to be a producer of points as well, which will be interesting to see how he can handle. I see him as a future third-line centre at the NHL level.

Noah Dower-Nilsson, RW, Frölunda HC (Detroit Red Wings)

It was surprising to see Noah Dower-Nilsson not among the forward group who is going to play for Sweden at the WJC. I thought he had a strong case to make it after a strong first half of the season. He was injured for almost his whole draft-plus-one season but has this fall earned a regular spot on a big SHL club like Frölunda.

Despite injury struggles, Dower-Nilsson has improved this season. He struggled with his mobility in his draft year, but now he looks like a potentially average skater, moving well within the pace of the SHL game. He’s smart, shown by continuously smart defensive plays, hard play along the boards, and exciting moments as a playmaker. 

Dower-Nilsson has a chance of making it to the NHL as a third-line producer – a great buy in the third round of the draft.

Stock Steady ↔️

Theo Lindstein, D, Brynäs IF (St. Louis Blues)

Theo Lindstein plays as a subtle effective third-pair defenceman on the best team in the SHL. He is calm under pressure and reads the game well. He plans his actions and knows what to do with the puck before he receives it. He has an offensive mindset and likes to join the attacks as well as play well defensively. 

This is Lindstein’s draft-plus-two season and his third year playing at pro level. He has taken small steps every year, but isn’t a key player for his team yet. He’s smooth but doesn’t necessarily have many standout tools. 

All-in-all, Lindstein is decent, but not necessarily strong in most areas of the game. His NHL stock is the potential of a smart and subtle bottom-pair defenceman. Named to the World Juniors All-Star Team last year, he will now again be a key part of the Swedish team. 

Dominik Badinka, D, Malmö Redhawks (Carolina Hurricanes)

Dominik Badinka has struggled to take the next step this season. He has mostly been the No. 7 defenceman on Malmö's roster lately. He has also been demoted to get ice time with the J20 team. And it wasn’t great that he was once again snubbed of a roster spot at the WJC with Czechia, seemingly as some sort of punishment for turning down to play for them in the past. 

I considered him under a “stock falling” headline here, but I still see the same interesting player as last season. He is athletic and mobile with good size and reach. He activates well both offensively and defensively and has food instincts. He just needs more time to learn the game and how to play the game to his strengths more. The SHL game is brutal in that every point is so valuable for every team, so there isn’t much time to give players who need it for development. 

If Badinka doesn’t earn a more regular spot during the end of this season, a step over North America might be more beneficial, where he could get a slotted role to fit his development within Carolina's system. But yet again, patience might turn out to be positive with Badinka, just as it has shown to be for others.