Breaking down the top candidates for the Norris Trophy
We're about halfway through the NHL season at this point, and as such it feels like the right time to take a look at the current leaders for the league's various awards.
Over the next several articles, we'll examine the 10 leading candidates for each of the major awards, starting with the Norris Trophy, given annually to the best "all-round" defenseman in the league.
This is an interesting award because it feels like if you're putting together a top five, the same two or three players will be in that group every single year at this point, and then maybe another couple guys are in the "every other year or two" category. So spots fill up quickly and we're really just debating which of the same six or seven guys shone most brightly. Is this the year that changes?
The way things are going right now, probably not. Let's face it: You're not gonna get into the Norris conversation in a serious way unless you've put up a ton of points, and to a lesser extent, if you're not on a good team. Most of the defensemen who check those boxes are in the running every year, but there are a few interlopers who could make the race at least a little more interesting than it usually is.
Let's take a look at the 10 most likely candidates (presented in alphabetical order):
Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers
Bouchard is and will likely continue to be one of the league's highest-scoring players at his position and he has some of the best underlying numbers — some approaching 60 percent at 5-on-5 — among all defenders. Considering his breakout in the playoffs, it feels likely that a lot of awards voters will be keeping him in mind at the end of the season. However, I think there's also probably going to be a perception that he's along for the ride; he plays the vast majority of his full-strength minutes with Connor McDavid and of course is THE defenseman on the Edmonton power play, playing almost 100 more minutes than the next-closest Oiler blue liners with the man advantage. Now, the perception might be a little unfair because the PP is only kinda good this year, rather than elite, and Bouchard has a small fraction of his points there, but these awards are a lot more about perception, instead of actual performance, than voters would care to admit.
John Carlson, Washington Capitals
I know Carlson probably isn't as sexy a pick as teammate Jakob Chychrun, who has almost quadruple the goals, but voters will want to reward a guy on the surprise team of the year, and Carlson has both the tenure and reputation (five top-10 Norris finishes in his 16-year career) that Chychrun (one in nine years) does not. Moreover, the underlying numbers tell a much better story for Carlson than Chychrun, as do the minutes they're out there and how they're used and who they're playing against. Carlson's also keeping pace in total points, if not goals, and his borderline-elite underlyings get him ahead of Chychrun for the time being.
Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators
Yup, Chabot is another guy on a much-improved team who's not picking up as many points as one of his teammates (Jake Sanderson) but the margin is also relatively small here, and one has been dramatically outscoring his opponents when he's on the ice and the other is not.
Chabot has some of the best 5-on-5 expected-goals numbers among all players at his position, and his goals-for success isn't really fueled by percentages at all. If the Sens continue to be a strong team team in terms of underlying numbers, Chabot will likely be one of the strong drivers of that, and the only question you can really have about his candidacy is whether the goals against start going in more frequently if Linus Ullmark can't stay healthy.
Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
When Dahlin is on the ice, his team scores almost 60 percent of the goals. Which would be impressive for anyone, but should really knock your socks off and blow them down the street when you consider that he's on the Buffalo Sabres, who concede more goals than all but a handful of teams.
That alone should be enough to get him serious consideration for the Norris, but even beyond that, he's close to the top 10 in total points among blue liners, on a middling offensive club, and all his underlying numbers are elite on a team that's getting below 47 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Basically, when Dahlin is on the ice, the Sabres have a statistical profile like the Devils or Hurricanes, and when he's off, they have a statistical profile like the Sabres in the depths of their tank years. If that doesn't tell you everything about his quality, nothing will.
Adam Fox, New York Rangers
A lot of the stuff I just said about Dahlin also applies to Fox. And because awards voters in this league are creatures of habit, let's keep in mind that Fox has been top-five in Norris voting each of the last four seasons, and already won the trophy in 2021.
Yes, his team stinks and if people are writing "Should the Rangers be considered a bigger flop than the Sabres?" articles (the answer is yes, by the way), then the best defender on their team is going to take some reputational damage. But I'd argue that he shouldn't, except to say that you'd really like a guy who was over a point a game and scored 17 goals last year to have scored more than once almost halfway through the season.
Look, this is one of the four or five best defensemen in the league and likely will be for years to come. Voters love him, and they should. This isn't his year, but I think he'll get enough votes to finish somewhere in the top 10.
Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey Devils
The narrative around Hamilton is gonna be tough to ignore. He missed most of last season and the Devils went in the toilet. He's been healthy so far this year and the Devils are great. And of course, he's a big driver of that success.
That he has this many points (tied for 15th among defensemen) and his underlying numbers are great as always is really nice, and in fact there's room for improvement because his on-ice save percentage is actually pretty bad, sitting in the .880s. But bouncing back from a season-ending injury so strongly while the team takes a huge step forward is going to get him back into consideration. Maybe not strongly enough to put him in the top five — a place he's only been once in his career, if you can believe it — but definitely up there.
Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
Well, well, well. Hedman may not be a spring chicken, nor a favorite among voters any longer. He used to be a lock for the Norris top-three every year — to the point that it's kinda hard to believe he only has one trophy — but hasn't even been in the top five the last two seasons. But he's scoring a lot, playing 23 minutes a game, has top-five underlying numbers, and is on a weirdly resurgent team that suddenly looks like it could take a run at the Atlantic Division title.
The fact that Tampa's played fewer games than almost every other team in the league could allow him to further close the points gap between himself and the highest-scoring defenders in the league, so if things stay on this pace, I think voters will be happy to return Hedman to the mix.
Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
Missing time due to injury usually isn't good for awards candidacy. But fortunately(?) for Hughes, the state of the Canucks in his absence — whether he's in the lineup or not — tells you everything about what he brings to the table.
This is the best defenseman in the league. It's close, but not as close as a lot of people might think. The WOWYs on this guy are insane, he scores all the time. At 5-on-5, the Canucks are plus-18 when he's on and minus-11 when he's off, and only a few players in the entire league get more 5-on-5 ice time per game than Hughes.
If not for the injury, this should be a runaway for the reigning Norris winner, but missing three might hurt him enough to make this a real footrace. Unless, of course, the Canucks completely crap the bed and maybe have to trade some top players, which could make the Norris convo more of an "MVP" discussion than it usually is.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Makar is, of course, the other guy up there with Hughes as the guy with the inside track to win the Norris this season, basically since Day 1. Apart from his rookie year, when he beat Hughes for the Calder and "only" finished ninth in Norris voting, Makar has been considered a top-three defenseman in the league every single season, though he only has one win.
The combination of voter fatigue — it's rare for players to win the same award in back-to-back years — and the Hughes injury open the door, and it's not like Makar would be undeserving right now. His underlyings are top-three the best in the league, he scores a ton, he's exciting to watch, and he's got that ultra-valuable brand name. There's not really an argument against Makar right now as it is for Hughes. You can wonder, however, what happens if things stay on this track and Nathan MacKinnon is way up there (or even the leader) for the MVP. Being able to play with MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen every night and rack up a ton of power-play points and all that certainly won't hurt him, but could not-doing that help another candidate? It's possible, but right now, he's gotta be the favorite.
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
There's been a lot of talk the past week about Werenski's candidacy, and make no mistake: He deserves to be in the discussion. But his team isn't all that good and there are guys with much better statistical profiles than Werenski (he's only at about 51 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5, for example, and that's worse than everyone else on this list, plus a few high-scoring guys who aren't on it). But for me, the biggest thing I see driving Werenski's argument is a ton of goals and assists on the power play (almost half his total production) and an unsustainably high 5-on-5 save percentage (north of .925). The underlyings for most highly used Blue Jackets skaters aren't appreciably different when he's on versus when he's off, he doesn't really kill penalties, etc.
So, this is a very good defenseman having a career-best season. He's not quite super-elite for me, but I see the argument. Now, if Columbus comes on in the second half, and Werenski keeps scoring at the insane rate he has, then we're having a different conversation. It's a thankless task playing on a team that's below the Pittsburgh Penguins in this year's standings, and things are trending in the right direction. Recognition as one of the best defensemen in the league in the first half is certainly deserved, but I'm not sure this is built to last.
Norris trophy midseason ranking
With all of the above having been said, here's how I would rank the 10 players listed here in terms of likelihood to win the Norris, based on both performance to this point and the odds they continue or improve on their current situations in the second half:
- Cale Makar
- Quinn Hughes
- Victor Hedman
- Thomas Chabot
- Dougie Hamilton
- John Carlson
- Evan Bouchard
- Adam Fox
- Zach Werenski
- Rasmus Dahlin
